Best Motion Picture (Drama) -- Black Swan/The Social Network
I've seen all these movies, and I really take issue with The Social Network's structure. Moreover, it's ultimately a lawsuit movie. I love Sorkin, but I think the film's overrated.
Best Actress (Drama) - Natalie Portman/Natalie Portman
I've only seen two of these, so this is probably unfair, but Natalie (who I formerly loathed and will probably loathe again) killed it.
Best Actor (Drama) - Ryan Gosling/Colin Firth
Again, I saw all these movies, and it's a tight race, but Ryan singing "You Always Hurt the Ones You Love" trumps everything else.
Best Motion Picture (Comedy) - The Kids are All Right/The Kids are All Right
Best Actress (Comedy) - Annette Bening/Annette Bening
Again. Please. Emma was great, but she was in a mildly-better-than-average high school movie. And Julianne Moore should be in supporting.
Best Actor (Comedy) - ?/?
I saw none of these, so...
Best Supporting Actress - Helena Bonham Carter/Melissa Leo
This is tough. I saw everything but Animal Kingdom. I think Melissa Leo has it locked, but I loved HBC in a surprising but inspired casting choice.
Best Supporting Actor - Christian Bale/Christian Bale
In any other year, Rush would have it in the bag, but Christian Bale tore himself apart for this role, so it's no contest.
Best Animated Film - Toy Story 3/Toy Story 3
I only saw Toy Story 3 of these five, but I would bet my firstborn on this one.
I'm gonna skip Best Foreign Language Film because I didn't see any of them.
Best Director - Christopher Nolan/David Fincher
I thought there were a lot of flaws with Inception, but you've got to be impressed with how Nolan mastered all the technical madness.
Best Screenplay - 127 Hours/The Social Network
Do you know how hard it is to make a movie about a guy trapped in a cave and have it be utterly captivating? No, because Beaufoy and Boyle made it look easy with their insanely great script.
I'm gonna skip the music stuff too as I'm not really qualified. I'll post my TV predictions and feelings later.