Oscar Thoughts

Most critics do a who will win and who should win for the Oscars. I, on the other hand, would like to posit a more truthful, who should win/ who will win/ and who I personally would like to win 'cause I'm a schmuck. Before I go on, I would like to say that I have seen all the major movies except for Volver, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Children, and Venus. OK, and I missed United 93 and World Trade Center and Happy Feet, but I'm not sweating those. I mean, at least I saw Children of Men. If I should see any of the first 4 before the Oscars and change my mind, I will address it then.
Here goes:

BEST MOVIE:
Should: Little Miss Sunshine
Will: Little Miss Sunshine
Me: Pan's Labyrinth. OK, I guess I'll just have to make that my choice for Best Foreign Film. Sigh. The Departed then (though I won't be sad if it's LMS)

BEST DIRECTOR:
Should: Martin Scorsese
Will: Ditto
Me: Ditto (after the crap that was Gangs of New York and the weirdo dollhouse that was The Aviator, we finally got something immensely watchable in The Departed... and now let's give Leo a shot w/ some other directors -- I don't think he's always cast correctly, which is a shame, because he's a better actor than he lets us see)

BEST ACTOR:
Should: Ryan Gosling/Forest Whitaker
Will: FW
Me: Ryan Gosling (Forest was brilliant, but he can't deliver a damn acceptance speech). Seriously, go watch Half Nelson and try not to fall in love with him.

BEST ACTRESS:
Should: Of the three I've seen, none have impressed me as much as they seemed to impress the Academy, so I'm going to go w/ Kate or Penelope
Will: Helen Mirren. I loved her in Elizabeth I, but honestly, I don't get the infatuation w/ The Queen.
Me: Kate Winslet. She deserves an Oscar just for being classy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Should: They're all equally great in their own ways, though I don't think Cate's in the right category.
Will: Jennifer Hudson or Adriana Barraza (I don't know that JHud is the unstoppable force people think she is)
Me: Rinko Kikuchi. She's really skinny and I don't like that she dyed her hair, but I think she was the best thing about Babel. And the kind of understatement she pulled off was a relief in a group of roles that were all about the melodrama

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Should: James McAvoy for The Last King of Scotland -- yeah, I know he wasn't nominated but he was a major part of that film and a pleasure to watch, as always
Will: People think Eddie Murphy, but I wouldn't be surprised if they called out JEHaley's or my man Marky Mark's name come announcement time
Me: Steve Carell. Again, not nominated, but he would have had the best speech of the night.